预言的丑闻

先知不是具有特殊预见力的人，只不过是对别人看到的绝大多数东西视而不见的人。

对古人来说，预言历史事件是对（诸）神的亵渎；对我来说，这是对人类的亵渎——对有些人来说，是对科学的亵渎。

古人很清楚，理解事件的唯一方式就是促成它们发生。

任何作出预言或者表达意见而不必承担风险的人，都有些虚伪的意味。除非他会跟着船一起沉下去，否则这就像是看一场冒险电影。

要让他们更加严肃地看待预报内容，可以告诉他们，在闪米特人的语言里，“预报”和“预言”是同一个词。

塞涅卡认为，斯多葛学派的智者在国家腐败到无可挽回、自己的努力没有效果时就应该退隐。等待社会自我毁灭是更明智的做法。

THE SCANDAL OF PREDICTION

A prophet is not someone with special visions, just someone blind to most of what others see.

For the ancients, forecasting historical events was an insult to the God (s); for me, it is an insult to man——that is, for some, to science.

The ancients knew very well that the only way to understand events was to cause them.

Anyone voicing a forecast or expressing an opinion without something at risk has some element of phoniness. Unless he risks going down with the ship this would be like watching an adventure movie.

They would take forecasting more seriously if it were pointed out to them that in Semitic languages the words for forecast and "prophecy" are the same.

For Seneca, the Stoic sage should withdraw from public efforts when unheeded and the state is corrupt beyond repair. It is wiser to wait for self-destruction.