结语

现在的地球正处于一个新的纪元——人类世。或许人类历史也同样处于一个新的时期——人类世，但这却并非如此清晰明了。它不够清晰明了的原因在于，历史分期属见仁见智之举，并无既定标准。全球史尤为如此，它没有一致的分期方案，也不可能在很短的时间里形成一致的意见。不仅如此，在这一方面，未来将塑造过去。一方面，如果全球生态的动荡被证明妨碍了人类事务的进展，那么人类世看起来就像是人类历史上的一个时期，也像是地球历史上的一个时代。另一方面，如果人类无视气候和生物圈更加混乱的情况，设法追求其惯例，那么人类世似乎就不像一个历史时期了——即使它似乎值得被承认为地球历史上的一个时代。因此，正如过去束缚了未来一样，未来也将限制我们对于过去的理解。

我们最好的猜想便是，即使地质学家和历史学家对这个术语的理解有所不同，人类世在适当的时候，无论作为地球史上的一个时代还是作为人类史上的一个时期，似乎都是相称的。地质学家是否会正式采用“人类世”这个术语，将有可能在2016年或之后不久由国际地质科学联合会投票决定。有朝一日，历史学家是否会发现这一术语和概念适合作为一般的人类历史上的一个时期，将需要更长的时间来决定。不过，无论这些专业共同体做出怎样的决定，我们认为，全球环境史上的人类世已经开始。

正如我们所看到的那样，当人类活动成为诸如碳循环和氮循环的一些基本地球系统背后的主要驱动力时，且当人类对地球及其生物圈的总体影响陡然上升到新水平时，人类世就开始了。虽然试图准确指出这一时刻是徒劳的，但有份量的证据还是指向了20世纪中期的某个年份，它约在1945年或1950年。

当然，人们早在1945年以前就对环境产生了影响。在现代人类存在以前，古人类就已用火做到了这一点。更新世的人类通过迫使数百种大型哺乳动物走向灭绝，也做到了这一点。在全新世中期，他们通过为了农业砍伐森林，也做到了这一点。尽管我们没有这么做，但却有可能定义人类世，使它起始于这些活动中的任意一个。

但对于我们的思维方式而言，将人类世视作由1945年以后这一时期的大加速运动发起的，要更有意义。本书的几乎每一页都服务于这一命题，即1945年以后的这一时期应当被标记为与环境史上先前出现的时期有所不同的一个时期。得出此结论的第一个理由是，只有在1945年以后，人类活动才成为关键性地球系统背后的真正驱动力。由于我们排放了碳，大气中二氧化碳的浓度被推向了全新世的边界之外——甚至将二氧化碳的浓度推至过去87万年间从未有过的高度，这是冰芯证据所能追溯的最早时期。（但是，400ppm以上的浓度可能对于上新世以来的过去至少300万年而言，都是新鲜事物。）我们革新了氮循环，它因此以一种地球历史上前所未有的方式运行（而且我们体内有一半的氮是来自哈柏——博许制氨法）。第二个理由是，1945年以后，人类对生物圈和全球生态的影响力迅速上升，正如大坝建设、城市发展、生物多样性丧失、海洋酸化、塑料碎片积聚等诸如此类的证据所显示的那样。

因此，时至今日，人类世和大加速在齐头并进。但这不会持续很长时间。除非发生一些能将人类从历史场景中抹去的灾难，人类世将长久持续至未来。事实上，即使明天每个人都移居到另一个星球，我们过去几代人产生的影响也会在地壳、化石记录和气候中持续数千年之久。但是，大加速将不会持续很长的时间。它无须如此，也无法如此。人类人口的爆发增长已经结束。化石燃料的时代也将会结束，虽然尚不明确，但无疑会是这样。这些趋势应当足以减缓大加速的进程，并缓和人类对地球的影响。那将不会是人类世的终结，却将把它带入另一个阶段。

迄今为止，人类只是在偶然间影响到基本的地球系统，这是作为一种对财富、权力和满足的常规追求而采取行动的无法预料的和无意而为之的副产品。在20世纪后期，许多人注意到人类在一些圈层里的所作所为显得鲁莽轻率和令人震惊。在不久的将来，人们可能会减轻自身对地球的影响，部分原因是由于刻意为之，部分原因是由于人口增长减速和摒弃化石燃料的意外副产品。没有人能说出要到何时或者还得多久才会发生这种转变。但是，当它们出现的时候，人类世将进入一个新的阶段，或许是一个不那么令人不安的阶段——尽管人们永远不知道未来会发生什么。关于期待的内容，21世纪的历史应当会给我们一种恰当的看法。

奇怪的是，正当大加速转向高速发展的时候，学究气的社会科学家和人文学者却选择从肮脏油腻的现实退回到各种各样的想象中的世外桃源里去。他们发现各种各样的话语值得通过研究加以关注，从而陶醉于语言和文化的“转向”之中。但是物种的灭绝、森林的焚毁、大气中二氧化碳的浓度——所有这些似乎都不值得他们投入精力，只有这些所引发的话语才能引起他们的兴趣。与此同时，有一种社会科学家、经济学家，抛弃了现实而选择了与众不同的幻想，那是一种更加抽象的模型，它建立在对个人行为和国家行为的普遍假设的基础之上，毫不在乎地从所有的历史和文化背景更不用说生态背景之中抽离出来。社会科学和人文科学，尤其是在它们最负盛名的精神支柱那里，并未显得比那些在能源政策和气候政治中苦苦挣扎的政府更能适应人类世的到来。由于知识对现实的逃避，掌权者在避免直面现实的时候稍微容易了一些。

令人欣慰的是，对现实相关性和大加速现实的认识已经开始渗透到人文社会科学当中。在21世纪之初，某种“环境转向”似乎得以酝酿，而语言学转向似乎注定要走上所有学术潮流的道路。或许任何一种环境转向也将按常规发展，但从先前的学术曲折来看，它很可能还有一代人的路要走。除了少数持异议者——第三章提到的生态经济学家——以外，经济学家比起大多数人，更加不能适应一时的突发奇想，仍然执着于他们那神圣而庄严的模型。

通常意义上的社会，尤其是其政治体制，显示出不确定能否适应人类世的迹象。正如我们对环保主义的讨论中所阐释的那样，自从20世纪70年代以来，大多数社会都找到了对各自的生态影响中的一些而非全部进行调节的方法。在一些例子中（例如氯氟烃），大胆而有效的行动被证明是可以实现的。至于像温室气体排放等更加棘手的问题，社会的倾向和政策仍然存在双重不一致性。从某种意义上说，它们是不一致的；有一些（极少数的）社会即便以经济牺牲为代价，也要支持积极的努力；另外一些社会则坚决反对脱离现状。从另一种意义上说，还有许多社会是不一致的，因为它们会随着新的信息或政治风向不时改变立场。但总的来说，迄今为止，有关思想和意识形态、习俗和习惯、制度和政策的较大一部分的体系仍然牢固地扎根于全新世晚期。在各个层面，对人类世做出的适应才刚刚开始。

这应该不会令人感到惊讶。智力、社会和政治的惯性通常是强大的力量。现代思想和制度在全新世晚期演化和滋长，轻轻松松地适应了一个拥有廉价能源和稳定气候的世界。约从1750-1950年的世界在许多方面是动荡的，但是人们还是可以知道在气候方面应该期待些什么，因为现有的模式变化不大。有越来越多人发现化石燃料更加实惠，似乎取之不尽用之不竭。化石燃料因此成为一个具有无限吸引力的中心，其余的一切在它的周围被构建起来。既然气候不够稳定，地球系统也正在制订一个以前从未经历过的新路线，从而思想和制度将朝着与人类世更相容的新方向演进。既然我们无法退出人类世，我们终将找到适应之道。

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致谢

我们向下列乔治敦大学的同人致以谢意，其中有些是研究生。他们阅读了本书的全部或部分内容，并提供了有益的反馈：Clark Alejandrino, Carol Benedict, Meredith Denning, Toshi Higuchi, Faisal Husain, Adrienne Kates, Lindsay Levine, Robynne Mellor, Michelle Melton, Robert Mevissen, Graham Pitts, Colleen Riley, Alan Roe和Yubin Shen。在希尔托普（Hilltop）以外的地方，Akira Iriye,Stephen Macekura, Marie Sylvia O’Neill, Jürgen Osterhammel和Jan Zalaciewicz也给我们提供了有用的信息或评论，也向他们表示感谢。

见识丛书

科学 历史 思想

01《时间地图：大历史，130亿年前至今》 ［美］大卫·克里斯蒂安

02《太阳底下的新鲜事：20世纪人与环境的全球互动》 ［美］约翰·R.麦克尼尔

03《革命的年代：1789-1848》 ［英］艾瑞克·霍布斯鲍姆

04《资本的年代：1848-1875》 ［英］艾瑞克·霍布斯鲍姆

05《帝国的年代：1875-1914》 ［英］艾瑞克·霍布斯鲍姆

06《极端的年代：1914-1991》 ［英］艾瑞克·霍布斯鲍姆

07《守夜人的钟声：我们时代的危机和出路》 ［美］丽贝卡·D.科斯塔

08《1913，一战前的世界》 ［英］查尔斯·埃默森

09《文明史：人类五千年文明的传承与交流》 ［法］费尔南·布罗代尔

10《基因传：众生之源》（平装+精装） ［美］悉达多·穆克吉

11《一万年的爆发：文明如何加速人类进化》 ［美］格雷戈里·柯克伦 ［美］亨利·哈本丁

12《审问欧洲：二战时期的合作、抵抗与报复》 ［美］伊斯特万·迪克

13《哥伦布大交换：1492年以后的生物影响和文化冲击》 ［美］艾尔弗雷德·W.克罗斯比

14《从黎明到衰落：西方文化生活五百年，1500年至今》（平装+精装） ［美］雅克·巴尔赞

15《瘟疫与人》 ［美］威廉·麦克尼尔

16《西方的兴起：人类共同体史》 ［美］威廉·麦克尼尔

17《奥斯曼帝国的终结：战争、革命以及现代中东的诞生，1908-1923》 ［美］西恩·麦克米金

18《科学的诞生：科学革命新史》（平装） ［美］戴维·伍顿

19《内战：观念中的历史》 ［美］大卫·阿米蒂奇

20《第五次开始》 ［美］罗伯特·L.凯利

21《人类简史：从动物到上帝》（平装+精装） ［以色列］尤瓦尔·赫拉利

22《黑暗大陆：20世纪的欧洲》 ［英］马克·马佐尔

23《现实主义者的乌托邦：如何建构一个理想世界》 ［荷］鲁特格尔·布雷格曼

24《民粹主义大爆炸：经济大衰退如何改变美国和欧洲政治》 ［美］约翰·朱迪斯

25《自私的基因（40周年增订版）》（平装+精装） ［英］理查德·道金斯

26《权力与文化：日美战争1941-1945》 ［美］入江昭

27《犹太文明：比较视野下的犹太历史》 ［以］S.N.艾森斯塔特

28《技术垄断：文化向技术投降》 ［美］尼尔·波斯曼

29《从丹药到枪炮：世界史上的中国军事格局》 ［美］欧阳泰

30《起源：万物大历史》 ［美］大卫·克里斯蒂安

31《为什么不平等至关重要》 ［美］托马斯·斯坎伦

32《科学的隐忧》 ［英］杰里米·鲍伯戈

33《简明大历史》 ［美］大卫·克里斯蒂安 ［美］威廉·麦克尼尔 主编

34《专家之死：反智主义的盛行及其影响》 ［美］托马斯·M.尼科尔斯

35《大历史与人类的未来（修订版）》 ［荷］弗雷德·斯皮尔

36《人性中的善良天使》 ［美］斯蒂芬·平克

37《历史性的体制：当下主义与时间经验》 ［法］弗朗索瓦·阿赫托戈

38《希罗多德的镜子》 ［法］弗朗索瓦·阿赫托戈

39《出发去希腊》 ［法］弗朗索瓦·阿赫托戈

40《灯塔工的值班室》 ［法］弗朗索瓦·阿赫托戈

41《从航海图到世界史：海上道路改变历史》 ［日］宫崎正胜

42《人类的旅程：基因的奥德赛之旅》 ［美］斯宾塞·韦尔斯

43《西方的困局：欧洲与美国的当下危机》 ［德］海因里希·奥古斯特·温克勒

44《没有思想的世界：科技巨头对独立思考的威胁》 ［美］富兰克林·福尔

45《锥形帐篷的起源：思想如何进化》 ［英］乔尼·休斯

46《后基因组时代：后基因组时代的伦理、正义和知识》 ［美］珍妮·瑞尔丹

47《世界环境史》 ［美］威廉·H.麦克尼尔 约翰·R.麦克尼尔 等 编著

48《竞逐富强：公元1000年以来的技术、军事与社会》 ［美］威廉·麦克尼尔

49《大加速：1945年以来人类世的环境史》 ［美］约翰·R.麦克尼尔 ［美］彼得·恩格尔克

50《不可思议的旅程：我们的星球与我们自己的大历史》 ［美］沃尔特·阿尔瓦雷兹

51《认知工具：文化进化心理学》 ［英］塞西莉亚·海耶斯

52《人工不智能：计算机如何误解世界》 ［美］梅瑞狄斯·布鲁萨德

53《断裂的年代：20世纪的文化与社会》 ［英］艾瑞克·霍布斯鲍姆

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