无所不包的历史理论？

我在组织大历史教学的过程中摸索出一套万事万物的历史理论，有关内容将在下一章详细阐述。这一理论并不是要解释历史上曾经的万事万物的细节，而是试图通过放宽视野，洞悉可能的整体格局，而这种整体格局若以小的历史视野考证往往就被遮蔽了。这里还需指出，假如读者没有兴趣直接进入有关历史理论的讨论而想先看看这种历史是否新鲜有趣，那么读者完全可以先跳过第二章直接阅读第三章，直到感觉有必要查阅相关的理论阐释，可以再回过头阅读第二章。

但不管读者做如何决定，这里还有一点颇值得指出：其实读者在阅读上述有关19世纪早期大历史兴起的讨论中，可能已经觉察到笔者的历史研究思路，若没有这样的思路，则几乎不可能预见或阐释亚历山大·冯·洪堡的作为。笔者希望上述有关早期大历史先驱生活于其中的社会和生态环境，有关其生逢的机缘和自身局限的讨论还是清楚的，能够说明诸如洪堡之类的学者何以为其所为。这当然只是某种后见之明。

如同大多数甚至所有的大尺度历史叙事一样，大历史倾向于关注那些造成重大变迁或突出的复杂度增高的历史变革，而对复杂度降低的现象则较少系统地关注。当然，在更为均衡的论述中，上述两种情况都应更为系统地讨论。但要是那样的话，本书的篇幅恐怕还要大大增加。因此，作者须谨记本书偏向历史发展不断萌生的新现象，而对那些伴随历史发展变得不再重要甚至完全消失的现象关注不足。

自然科学家们会说，不同于有关人类社会的研究，他们的研究足以精确预测很多自然现象，比如地球围绕太阳运转的轨道的未来状况（实际上并不完全合规律）。对此，我的回答是，之所以如此是因为这些系统相对简单，其运行格局大致有规律可循。自然科学家能够同样准确地预测超新星未来数十亿年可能的爆发、危及包括人类在内的太阳系的生存周期，或者预测轨道尚无法测定的陨石何时会撞击地球吗？对此，我们还心存疑惑。在我个人看来，遇到这种情况，自然科学家们同样会仰赖本书所提出的方法。

后见之明既有优势又存劣势。其优势在于能够让人对不同时段的历史过程有种总括的认识。但后见之明有时使我们陷入某种循环式的论证之中，比如我们会假定某些事情以某种方式发生是因为当时的条件恰好如此，而与此同时，我们又完全主观地界定什么是适宜的条件，因为恰在此时，上述事情就发生了。笔者在下文的叙事中当力戒此类陷阱，但又充分利用后见之明的优势。无论如何，后见之明是任何历史建构都无法避免的立足点。所以，我们要时刻牢记：后见之明是飘忽不定的当今不可缺少的一部分，因此，后见之明本身也会伴随时间的推移发生变化。

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推荐阅读书目

Brown, Cynthia Stokes. 2007. Big History: From the Big Bang to the Present. New York, The New Press.

Bryson, Bill. 2003. A Short History of Nearly Everything. London, Random House.

Chaisson, Eric J. 2001. Cosmic Evolution: The Rise of Complexity in Nature. Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press.

Chaisson, Eric J. 2006. Epic of Evolution: Seven Ages of the Cosmos. New York, Columbia University Press.

Christian, David. 2004. Maps of Time: An Introduction to Big History. Berkeley & Los Angeles, University of California Press.

McNeill, J. R. & McNeill, W. H. 2003. The Human Web: A Bird’s-Eye View of World History. New York, W. W. Norton & Co.

Reeves, Hubert. 1991. The Hour of Our Delight: Cosmic Evolution, Order, and Complexity. New York, W. H. Freeman & Co.049 .

[1] 大卫·克里斯蒂安有英、美、澳三重国籍。有关克里斯蒂安推动大历史的情况，可参阅Christian (1991, 2014)。

[2] 唐纳德·奥斯特洛夫斯基2005年4月15日在“历史世界讨论组”（H-World Discussion Group）发的帖子，属于“历史研究为何很重要”（Why is studying history important?）讨论的一部分，可参阅网站www.h-net.org/.world/。可同时参阅Ostrowski (1989 & 2003)。2007年6月16日，托马斯·希普（Thomas Shipp）在写给科学杂志《新科学家》（New Scientist）的一封信中，也提出了几乎完全一样的问题。

[3] 有关学术界对“我们对历史的全部认知只能来自当下”这一思想的讨论，可参阅Walsh (1951), p. 18; Bloch (1984), pp. 23.. and pp. 48..; Collingwood (1993), pp. 251-252 and p. 364［以上参考文献由鲍勃·莫尔（Bob Moore）热心提供］。同时可参阅Barraclough (1955), p. 23和Wesseling (1995), p. 20。有关奥斯特洛夫斯基更深入的阐发，参阅Hurwitz & Ostrowski (1983) and Ostrowski (1989)。有关历史重建中遇到主要问题的讨论，参阅Barraclough (1955); Bloch (1984); Carr (1968); Kitson Clark (1967); Collingwood (1993); Huizinga (1995); McNeill (1986b); Slicher van Bath (1978); Tosh (1992); Walsh (1951); and Wesseling (1995)。

[4] 这一观点绝非原创。事实上，很多学者包括William McNeill (1986a&b)和David Christian (2004)都曾提出过类似观点。

[5] 其实很不幸，就连这一表述也不是非常准确。人不可能回溯过去，因为过去已经不存在了。有时天文学家还会使用其他一些含混不清的表述，比如说“这一星系距离我们有15亿光年”。我们唯一可以确知的是，该星系今天已经不在那里，也肯定不是我们观察到的那个样子。

[6] Von Humboldt (1997), p. 153, 原文见德文版 (1845), p. 160。

[7] 从一种非常超脱的观点看，原则上我们没有任何理由运用科学原理分析当下的数据而试图构建历史上可能发生事件的轮廓。这就等于说一个人完全可以读圣典然后全盘接受圣典上所说的有关过去的一切字面表述。这虽然不符合当今“科学”的规定，但若完全不在乎科学，这种做法本身又有什么问题呢？我是看不出来。

[8] 印度教中没有所谓起源之说，有的只是无尽的轮回，这与当今某些较大型的宇宙模型有几分相似。

[9] 参阅Christian (2010)。

[10] 比较Moore (1997)。

[11] 文化人类学家特别不喜欢把所谓“识字”（literacy）视为历史的全部。有关这一点，表述得最清晰准确的是美国文化人类学家埃里克·沃尔夫（Eric Wolf，1923—1999）的专著《欧洲与没有历史的人民》（Europe and the People without History, 1982）。

[12] 参阅Smail (2005 & 2007)。厄舍大主教在《世界编年史》（The Annals of the World）一书中曾发布其有关创世年代的计算，其实这是一部从时间之初至公元70年的人类史著作。

[13] Leopold von Ranke: ‘A Fragment from the 1860’s,’ in Stern (1956). 原文见德文版von Ranke (1888), pp. xv-xvi。感谢大卫·克里斯蒂安提示我兰克的这句引语。

[14] Barraclough (1955), pp. 17.. 比如2008年，英国经济史学家帕特里克·奥布赖恩（Patrick O’Brien）曾这样描述20世纪70年代的状况：“四十年前，英国各大学的历史系主要由研究本国历史的学者构成，此外有少部分学者参与一些有关异类世界的本科教学或研究生指导工作，而那时的异类世界其实主要是欧洲大陆和业已去殖民化了的大英帝国。”［(2008), p. 1］

[15] 有关亚历山大·冯·洪堡的生平及其对科学事业影响的比较好的文献计有Ette & Lubrich (2004), Helferich (2004), Sachs (2007), Walls (2009)。

[16] Von Humboldt (1997), p. 340.

[17] 参阅von Humboldt (1995) and Kosmos: Entwurf einer physischen Weltbeschreibung (1845至1862年出版 ), 英文译本为Cosmos (1997)。同时参阅Helferich (2004)。这里的引文见Cosmos (1997), pp. 55-56 and pp. 79-80。

[18] 有关柏林歌唱学院的演讲，参阅von Humboldt (1993)。

[19] 钱伯斯、爱因斯坦和詹姆斯·洛夫洛克不像有些学者那样幸运，仅靠继承下来的遗产就可以轻松度日，不过其收入另有他途，一边做科研，一边就有了收入。

[20] Von Humboldt (1995), p. ix. 其观点深受法国大革命的影响，无论在智识还是在情感方面均如是。

[21] 那时候生物学和地质学还没有分化出来。比如，那时达尔文和莱尔都自称博物学家，而今我们称二人同为地质学家兼生物学家。不过对达尔文和莱尔而言，这两方面有关大自然的研究都是密不可分的。但有趣的是，后来莱尔成了地质学家们的文化英雄，而其生物学家的身份则被大打折扣。换言之，学术专业的分工实际上使这些学者的形象局限且单一化了。当今，我们可能会称他们为跨学科思想家，但这对他们而言却不伦不类，因为当时的学科还没有像今天这样划分得特别清晰。

[22] 参阅Spier (2013)。

[23] 参阅Descartes (1977)和Kant (1755 & 1963)。笔者参阅了不同网址的相关文献，既有原文的，也有英文的。

[24] 有关黑格尔的《哲学科学全书纲要》，参阅www.zeno.org。

[25] Chambers (1994), pp. 306–10. 在Cosmos (1997), pp. 71–2, 洪堡曾提出，要描述事物的外形，则必然要追溯其历史。用他自己的话说就是，“凡物，其外形即其历史”（Their form is their history）。

[26] Secord (2000). 同时参阅西科德为罗伯特·钱伯斯《自然创造史的痕迹》（1994）一书所写的导论。这里是笔者对西科德提到的众多动机的小结。

[27] 查尔斯·达尔文非常熟悉洪堡、莱尔和钱伯斯等人的著述，也曾表示过特别欣赏之情。

[28] Wells (1930), p. vi.

[29] 有关计时革命，参阅Christian (2009a&b)。

[30] Shapley (1959, 1963) and Jastrow (1967, 1977).

[31] 此外，还确有其他一些人试图撰写无所不包的历史概说，比如荷兰中学教师基斯·伯克（Kees Boeke）曾编写一本图画本《宇宙奇观：宇宙的40级跃迁》（Cosmic View: The Universe in 40 Jumps，1957）。这本书后来在20世纪60年代末至70年代成为菲利普和菲利斯·莫里森（Philip and Phylis Morrison）夫妇撰写《十的次方：关于宇宙中事物的相对大小》（Powers of Ten: About the Relative Size of Things in the Universe）一书的基础立论，只是后者更有名，还拍成了电影。这类作品——围绕这一主题有很多变奏——虽不属于大历史（因为书中根本不谈历史），但其作者内心的追求可能与大历史相类似。

[32] Kuhn (1970).

[33] 可参阅以下文献，比利时 : Verburgh (2007); 哥伦比亚 : Vélez (1998); 法国 : Reeves (1981, 1986, 1991), Morin and Kern (1993), Reeves, Rosnay, Coppens & Simonnet (1996 & 1998), Nottale, Chaline & Grou (2000) and Perino (2013); Germany: Lesch & Zaun (2008); 荷兰 : Drees (1996 & 2002), Spier (1996, 1998 & 1999a&b, 2010, 2011a&b) and Lange (1997); 俄罗斯 : Neprimerov (1992) and Nazaretyan (2001, 2004, 2010); 英国 : May, Moore & Lintott (2006), Aunger (2007a&b) and Lloyd (2008); 美国 : Chaisson (1977, 1981, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008 & 2009), Field, Verschuur & Ponnamperuma (1978),Mears (1986, 2009), Asimov (1987), Kutter (1987), Swimme & Berry (1992), Adams & Laughlin (1999), Morowitz (2002), Gonzalez & Richards (2004) [这本书试图把大历史与智慧设计论（intelligent design，又称外星神创论）联系起来 ], Primack & Abrams (2006), Brown (2007), Gehrels (2007), Genet (2007), Genet, Genet, Swimme, Palmer & Gibler (2009), Potter (2009), Swimme & Tucker (2011), Christian, Brown & Benjamin (2013)及Simon, Behmand & Burke (2014)。

[34] 参阅McNeill (1992, 1998 & 2001)。1996年，麦克尼尔在阿姆斯特丹获得伊拉斯谟奖，他非常慷慨地把奖金的一半捐给了我们的大历史项目。

[35] 参阅Mears (1986 & 2009), Christian (1991)。有关阿姆斯特丹大学开设大历史课程的简要历程，可参阅Spier (2005b)。

[36] 有关首个大历史研究纲要，参阅Spier (2011b)。